Mutual Fund Flight-to-Liquidity
Presentations: American Finance Association 2017, Northern Finance Association 2016, Asian Finance Association 2018, USC Marshal PhD Conference in Finance 2015, PhD Nordic Finance Workshop 2015, Bank for International Settlements, Bank of Canada, Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen University, Aarhus University, IESE, BI Oslo, Rotterdam School of Management, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Deutsche Bundesbank, Geothe University, DeGroote School of Business, School of Administrative Studies (York University), and Schulich School of Business
This paper empirically investigates a channel through which market uncertainty affects the liquidity premium. Using data at the mutual fund level, I document that increases in market uncertainty are associated with lower performance and more withdrawals. Consequently, funds adjust the composition of their portfolio towards more liquid assets in order to meet potential redemptions. Aggregated over many funds, this `flight-to-liquidity’ places significant upward price pressure on the liquidity premium: a one standard deviation increase in my measure of active liquidity management yields a 1.22 standard deviation increase in the return spread between illiquid and liquid stocks.
Online Appendix is available here.
Passive-Aggressive Trading: The Supply and Demand of Liquidity by Mutual Funds (with Susan Christoffersen, Donald Keim, and David Musto)
Presentations: FRIC Conference 2018, European Finance Association 2018, Northern Finance Association 2018, BI Oslo, Alabama University*, Bank of England*
Fund managers can demand liquidity for their trading ideas or provide liquidity for others’ ideas. We identify the roles of these motives using a database of the individual transactions by Canadian equity funds. Both the cost and subsequent performance of their buys decline after strong inflows, indicating the depletion of ideas and substitution into liquidity provision as funds quickly put new money to work. Sales show little of this substitution, consistent with funds’ narrower latitude to provide liquidity to buyers. In general, the option to provide liquidity makes fund performance positive in the transactions costs of buys, but not of sells.
Informed Trading and Co-Illiquidity (with Massimo Massa and Søren Hvidkjær)
Presentations: Mutual Fund, Hedge Fund and Factor Investing Conference 2019, 8th Luxembourg Asset Management Summit 2019, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Schulich School of Business
We study the link between informed trading and co-movement in liquidity. We argue that investors concerned with liquidity and fire sale shocks respond to an increase in informed trading by shifting their portfolios away from stocks with high information asymmetry. Their rebalancing results in a substitution in ownership away from the very same investors that induce financial fragility and co-movement in liquidity. This reduces co-illiquidity of the affected stocks. We exploit a unique natural experiment that increases the incentives of informed traders to trade. Our results suggest that informed traders reduce the exposure to co-movement in liquidity: one of the major problems during the latest global financial crisis.
Local Economic Conditions and Local Equity Preferences: Evidence from Mutual Funds during the U.S. Housing Boom and Bust (with Chandler Lutz and Ben Sand)
Presentations: Urban Economic Association 2017, Canadian Economic Association 2017*, Copenhagen Business School, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business
This paper examines the impact of local economic conditions on mutual fund preferences for geographically proximate stocks and consequently fund performance. Specifically, we demonstrate that mutual funds favoritism towards firms located within close geographic proximity varies with local housing price shocks. A decrease in local house prices is strongly associated with an increase in mutual fund home bias and results in a portfolio adjustment towards safer and higher quality holdings. This previously undocumented behavioral bias is of first order importance, as the shift in mutual fund preferences towards local stocks induced by deterioration in local economic conditions is associated with mutual fund underperformance: a one percentage point increase in home bias causes a decrease in a fund’s characteristic-adjusted 3-month future return by 35.3 bps.
House Prices and Taxes (with Mads Nielsen Gjedsted)
Presentations: Word Finance Conference 2014* and European Economic Association \& Econometric Society 2014*
By using the 2007 municipality reform in Denmark as an exogenous shock to municipal tax rates, we find that a 1%-point increase in income tax rates lead to a drop in house prices of 7.9% and a 1‰-point increase in the property tax rates lead to a 1.1% drop in house prices. The simple present values of a 1%-point perpetual income tax increase and a 1‰-point property tax increase, relative to the median house price, are 7% and 3.3%, respectively. Our findings are thus in line with the predicted median tax loss. This indicates that the housing market efficiently incorporates taxes into house prices. The exogeneity of the shock to taxes and the size of the data set is an improvement over earlier studies.
This paper studies the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ratings on investors’ preferences and stock prices. We exploit a change in ESG rating methodology that non-linearly shifted ESG ratings for firms as a natural experiment. We show that the ‘pseudo’-changes in the ESG ratings induced by the change in methodology are unrelated to potential fundamental changes in firm’s sustainability. Yet, we find that an exogenous change in a stock’s ESG rating exerts a transitory price pressure and alters the composition of stock ownership. Individual investors are especially sensitive to the ‘pseudo’-changes in the ESG ratings. They (dis)invest in stocks that they misconceive as ESG (down-) upgraded. Short sellers act as arbitrageurs and take the other side of retail investors’ trades. Overall, we find that a one standard deviation quasi-increase in the ESG ratings translates into 1pp drop in stock monthly abnormal return.
Work in Progress
- Political uncertainty and the value of debt (with Agatha Murgoci)
* presented by co-author